Well, all of us have been dining out on the predictions placed in all those preseason magazines for about two months now. But Friday, the first rankings that matter was published and our Buckeye's find themselves starting in 9th place. I agree with those of you that believe these polls come out too early, but how else will those ESPN analysts be able to hype their favorite teams. This year will mark the first time the AP poll, which has been around since 1936, will not be included in the calculation of the BCS. It has been replaced by the Harris poll. This is a great substitute but will still leave the same issues faced when you can not truly decide the National Champion on the field. Since the Harris poll will not come out until late September, we can only watch the Coach's poll for now.
The biggest concern will always be how much football do the coaches really get to watch outside their own conference and opponents. And if they don't see the other teams, how do they determine who is truly the best. Well, they can't. In fact, rumors have often surfaced that some of the coaches give the voting duties to their SID or an assistant, or some other even less informed person. How else would you explain how a 2-9 Duke team got a vote in the opening rankings. (The answer on that one is actually the fact that Steve Spurrier, now at South Carolina, always votes for is old team). Certainly adds to credibility doesn't it. But don't figure Duke in the mix long term. What is more disturbing is that USC actually only got 60 of the 62 first place votes. Seems hard to believe that the Trojans, coming off back-to-back National Championships, destroying Oklahoma in the title game, would be anywhere but first place on all bal! lots until they lose a game. The other two went to our #2 team, the Texas Longhorns. How long can Mack Brown and his brother keep voting Texas #1? The answer is the same amount of time Mack will vote for his brother's team, the powerful University of Alabama-Birmingham. Expect both of those tally's to change after week two.
But it is not all bad. If we win out, we should move up toward that number 2 spot. You may feel that is a long way to climb but consider that in five of the seven years of the BCS, at least one of the title-game participants had a double digit preseason ranking (remember the 2002 Buckeyes?). So do not give up hope that we can not reach the title game. However, as last year proved, you can go undefeated and find yourself playing outside the title game. Just ask Auburn and Utah, both teams that won their respective BCS bowl games about as strongly as USC did. Our hope is that OSU does not find itself in that spot.
I realize it is early, but what has to happen for OSU to climb into the title game with 7 teams ahead of them now. First, we play two of the teams, so right away, the Buckeye nation only has to concern ourselves with 5 other teams. Second, since Miami(#8) and Virginia Tech(#7) are in the same conference, no more than one of those teams can finish undefeated. So now we are down to 4 teams. This same rule applies to LSU(#6) and (#3) Tennessee, therefore now we only focus on three teams. Oklahoma is one of those teams and although they are in my opinion the most over rated team right now, one has to believe that even if they go undefeated, OSU's win against Oklahoma State and this year against Texas will likely push OSU over Oklahoma, but nothing is for certain. So this is where the help starts. We need Texas to beat Oklahoma to get them out of our path. That would take our focus down to just two team! s needing to suffer a lose somewhere, and we have an entire season to watch for that. It is likely that both Tennessee and LSU will lose so that can be one of the needed helps, As for the other, we can always hope that Florida State helps us out from the ACC. But the final straw of help may come from TBGUN, If they can run the table until their season ending loss to the scarlet and gray, they will likely be ranked #2 before the game. How can OSU not jump to the #2 spot after wins against two previously ranked #2 teams? That would then set up the match-up we should ALL be looking for OSU vs USC in the Rose Bowl for all the marbles.
What is this Harris Poll? Harris Interactive is a leading market research organization. Their voting group will consist of 114 members, 80 percent former players/Coaches/Administrators, and 20 percent media. Their first rankings will come out September 25th.
Crystal Ball: OSU starts with a quality win against Miami, but certainly nothing that would move them up unless a team above them fall. Then OSU rocks the 'shoe' and has a solid victory over Texas. This will move them up but not all they way to #2. Mostly likely they will just end up one spot ahead of the Longhorns. Our victory in week three over the San Diego State Aztecs will do little for us but give rest to starters for our Big Ten opener against Iowa. In week four is when it happens. After we have a sound victory over Iowa, USC is in the process of winning the toughest game on their schedule, at Oregon. With those two particular wins the media focus will begin a build for the Big Ten - Pac 10 match-up in the Rose Bowl pitting OSU against the defending champs. The first Harris poll will come out and will have those two teams 1 and 2. Sports Illustrated will come out with a cover with Regg! ie Bush running left to right and AJ Hawk charging from right to left. The only thing separating them in the spot is a thin line with a cover title proclaiming the two teams are on a collision course for the Championship.
See you in Pasadena!
Gregg Watson
